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Wednesday, June 17, 2015

It is not difficult to see why the country is in the trouble it is in and why things are not going to get better anytime soon. Donald Trump recently announced that he is seeking the Republican nomination for president and, if his campaign is still in effect when this is published, he really offers nothing more than comedy relief to what is already a circus.

By CNN’s count, there are 16 announced Republican presidential candidates and I would be willing to bet that most people cannot name more than four or five of them off the tops of their heads. Ted Cruz is out because he was actually not born in the United States and is only an American citizen through some weird loophole in the law. That and Cruz is a first-term junior senator and I am not falling for that again. Rubio is also out because of the junior senator tag.

(Remember that these are just my opinions. If you think that arguing with me is arguing fact, then you have no concept of how to argue.)

Trump won’t last past August and there is no way I am voting for another Bush. I actually never voted for the previous two Bush presidents and I don’t intend to start voting for one now. Sorry Jeb, but I just cannot help you get to the White House.

That leaves 12 or so Republican candidates that most people have never heard of and probably will not make it to January 2016. So what does that leave us? It actually leaves a very interesting situation that I don’t think I have ever seen in my lifetime. If I have seen it, I probably wasn’t paying attention.

Normally, in the election after a two-term president leaves office, there is a glut of candidates from both sides that are vying for position. But this time around, it seems like all the Democrats have is Hillary Clinton and that is who they are going with. If there is another Democrat running for president, they are getting smoked by Hillary’s marketing team because I have not heard a peep about them.

I had heard rumblings that Joe Biden was considering running but I don’t think anyone can really take that very seriously. I like Joe Biden in a sort of “regular guy who is second in command” kind of way, and my heart still goes out to him and his family, but he is not presidential material. Not even close. So that leaves Hillary running basically unopposed for the Democratic nomination, which is unheard of in an election without an incumbent running.

So what about Bernie Sanders? He is a 73-year-old guy who has been through this grind before, but things are a little different for Bernie this time around. He is giving speeches and filling halls, and the halls are getting bigger and bigger. Even Bernie is shocked at the turnout to his speeches, which really doesn’t say a whole lot about the confidence he has in his campaign. But he keeps putting out the word and heading toward Ross Perot territory.

The last time we had a Ross Perot, Bill Clinton won the White House. Actually, many political people say that Ross Perot is the reason Clinton won the White House in 1992. Perot split the undecided voters and drew a lot of votes away from Bush Sr. Then Perot did it again in 1996 as he once again helped propel Bill Clinton to the White House.

I have to admit that those two presidential elections with Ross Perot were the most fun to watch. The debates were fun to watch and the way the main party candidates tried to dance around questions about Perot when they were being interviewed was also interesting. I see Bernie Sanders filling a similar role in 2016 and I see another Clinton benefitting from the chaos.

I have always said that I am not political expert and I mean that. I kind of look at things from the perspective of someone who deals only in what is there and not someone who either knows politics, or pretends to know politics. I may not be good at politics, but I am pretty good at math. Unless the Republicans can come up with a superstar and quick, the math says that we are going to see another Clinton in the White House.

For better…or worse.

+George N Root III is a Lockport resident and amateur mathematician. Follow him on Twitter @georgenroot3 or send him an email at georgenroot3@gmail.com. Get ready for a fun campaign, but also get ready for the Clintons to move back into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.



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